MARKET COMMENTARY
During January 2026, 3 month LME copper prices traded within a range of 12,444 - 14,527.5 usd/ton, exhibiting a strong performance throughout the month. Price movements were primarily driven by supply-side risks, macroeconomic expectations, and investor sentiment.
At the beginning of the month, copper prices opened with a premium following the failure of negotiations between the main labor union and the company over new labor agreements at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde copper and gold mine in Chile, which led to hundreds of miners going on strike. In addition, low inventory levels in London LME approved warehouses further intensified supply concerns, providing strong upside support to prices.
As the month progressed, expectations that China would introduce new policy measures to stimulate domestic demand strengthened copper’s gains. Ongoing supply risks combined with a weaker U.S. dollar allowed prices to repeatedly test record-high levels throughout January.
Toward the end of the month, mining accidents in Chile particularly persistent strike concerns at the Mantoverde mine along with geopolitical risks stemming from renewed tariff threats by President Trump, encouraged speculators to take more aggressive positions amid expectations of strong demand. Supported by sustained investor buying, copper prices continued to climb and ultimately tested an all time high of 14,527.5 usd/ton on Thursday, January 29, 2026.
However, signs of weakness on the demand side became increasingly evident. The Yangshan premium in China falling to around USD 20 per tonne indicated subdued spot demand, while rising inventories in LME and COMEX warehouses, especially inflows into U.S. warehouses, suggested that global stock levels remained relatively high.
Following the record price levels, profit-taking activity weighed on the market. In addition, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair added further pressure on copper prices. As a result, copper prices fell by more than 4% on Friday, January 30, 2026.
Despite the sharp correction at the end of the month, 3 month LME copper prices closed January with a monthly gain of 4.59% at 13,070.5 usd/ton, reflecting the overall strength observed during the month.
