MARKET COMMENTARY
3M LME copper prices started May on a weaker footing as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fueled concerns over a potential slowdown in global economic growth. However, prices found support from U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks suggesting a possible peace agreement with Iran, which helped ease concerns about the broader economic impact of the conflict. The return of Asian markets from holidays also contributed to improved sentiment.
During the month, stronger than expected economic data from China and reports suggesting that the full recovery of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia (one of the world’s largest copper mines) could be delayed provided additional support to prices. Although these reports were later denied, supply concerns linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East continued to underpin the market. As a result, copper prices climbed to 14,196.5 dollar/mt on May 13, their highest level since January 29, 2026.
In the second half of the month, profit-taking at elevated levels, stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data, and reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts weighed on prices. Nevertheless, growing optimism surrounding a potential diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran, together with Chile’s downward revision of its production outlook, kept supply concerns in focus.
Towards the end of May, reports indicating a possible extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, along with expectations of additional economic stimulus measures in China, continued to support the market. Consequently, LME copper prices closed the month at 13,611.5 dollar/mt, posting a monthly gain of 4.55%.
